Uncertainty Looms Over 2025 Amid Risks Of Trade Wars, Geopolitical Disputes
By Sulaimon Salau
With few days to the new year, the 2025 trade outlook is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and impact key trading partners, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said.
The new UNCTAD report stated that such measures risk triggering retaliation and ripple effects, which are likely to affect industries and economies along entire supply chains.
“Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, weakening trade, investment and economic growth,” it stated.
It stated that countries most exposed to changes in US trade policy are likely those with large trade surpluses with the country and higher tariff barriers.
“Based on 2023 figures for trade in goods, these include China (about $280 billion trade surplus), India ($45 billion), the European Union ($205 billion) and Viet Nam ($105 billion).
“Other nations with trade surpluses, such as Canada ($70 billion), Japan ($70 billion), Mexico ($150 billion) and the Republic of Korea ($50 billion), may also face some risks, despite imposing relatively lower tariffs on US imports or having established trade agreements with the country.
“The US dollar’s uncertain trajectory and US macroeconomic policy changes add to global trade concerns,” UNCTAD stated.
